SARS-CoV-2 Fitness Tracker for North Carolina

Below represents the fitted variant progression in North Carolina.

Figure 1: Proportion of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Circulation (Fitted)

The below table represents the estimate growth rate advantages of the different variants over wild-type variants. Values greater than one indicate an advantage over the wild-type. This assumes a generation time of 4.7 days.

Fitness Advantages Over Wild-Type

Contrast	Estimate	Lower	Upper
Alpha - Other lineages	0.21	0.20	0.23
Beta - Other lineages	0.96	0.95	0.97
Delta - Other lineages	0.74	0.73	0.75
(Delta-Plus) - Other lineages	0.99	0.98	1.01
Gamma - Other lineages	0.83	0.78	0.88
Epsilon - Other lineages	0.96	0.95	0.97
Mu - Other lineages	0.97	0.94	0.99
Omicron - Other lineages	1.51	1.50	1.53
BA.4 - Other lineages	1.71	1.62	1.80
BA.5 - Other lineages	1.67	1.60	1.75

Figure 2: Fitness Advantages of SARS-CoV-2 Variants