SARS-CoV-2 Fitness Tracker for North Carolina

Below represents the fitted variant progression in North Carolina.

Figure 1: Proportion of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Circulation (Fitted)

The below table represents the estimate growth rate advantages of the different variants over wild-type variants. Values greater than one indicate an advantage over the wild-type. This assumes a generation time of 4.7 days.

Fitness Advantages Over Wild-Type
Contrast Estimate Lower Upper
Alpha - Other lineages 0.24 0.22 0.25
Beta - Other lineages 0.96 0.94 0.97
Delta - Other lineages 0.86 0.85 0.87
(Delta-Plus) - Other lineages 1.01 0.99 1.03
Gamma - Other lineages 0.69 0.62 0.76
Epsilon - Other lineages 0.95 0.92 0.97
Mu - Other lineages 0.99 0.97 1.02
Omicron - Other lineages 2.04 2.01 2.07
BA.4 - Other lineages 2.10 1.91 2.30
BA.5 - Other lineages 1.84 1.69 2.00

Figure 2: Fitness Advantages of SARS-CoV-2 Variants