Environmental Entomology · LSM Simulator

Vector Dynamics &
Larval Source Management

A two-stage ODE model of Anopheles larval and adult population dynamics under density-dependent regulation, rainfall-driven carrying capacity, and targeted vector control.
Model Parameters
θ (oviposition)5.0 /d
ν (maturation)0.20 /d
μ_L₀ (baseline)0.10 /d
μ_M₀ (baseline)0.10 /d
dt / steps0.5 / 150
Environmental Driver
Rainfall / Carrying Capacity 1000
Sets maximum larval density K. High rainfall = more breeding sites.
Larval Stage Interventions
LSM Larval Mortality 0.05
Added mortality from larviciding, drainage, or habitat modification.
Adult Stage Interventions
LLIN / IRS Adult Mortality 0.10
Added adult mortality from insecticide-treated nets or indoor spraying.
Equilibrium Metrics
Adult M*
—
equilibrium
Larval L*
—
equilibrium
M / M₀
—
vs. no control
Regime
—
population state
Mortality Budget
Baseline
LSM
Adult ctrl
dL/dt = θM(1−L/K)
      − (μ_L + d_L + ν)L
dM/dt = νL − (μ_M + d_M)M
d_L = LSM mortality
d_M = LLIN/IRS mortality
ν = maturation rate
Population Dynamics
Fig. I
Phase Portrait — L vs M
Fig. II
State-space trajectory. ● start  ■ end. Colour encodes time: cyan (early) → deep blue (late).
Intervention Impact — Adult Equilibrium
Fig. III
Estimated equilibrium adult mosquito density across four intervention scenarios at the current K.
Dynamic Regime Analysis
Adjust sliders to observe how larval source management and adult vector control interact with rainfall-driven carrying capacity.